The Gambler's Fallacy
by SteveGarbage
Summary: Vigil's Keep has been cleansed of the darkspawn ambush. Three recruits await their opportunity to undergo the dangerous Joining ritual. Ser Mhairi has waited her entire life for the moment when she would lift the chalice to her mouth and become a Warden. **Completed for the July Minor Character Challenge, "Mhairi" on the Dragon Age Fanfiction Writers group on Facebook**


Mhairi folded another hand.

The cards were certainly not on her side tonight. She wasn't much of a gambler, but she had lived in enough military camps throughout her life to take up the habit. Tonight, the game of cards was a welcome distraction after the events of earlier in the day. Vigil's Keep had been overrun. They fought their way through the darkspawn intruders and battled a _talking_ darkspawn. It was enough to give anyone nightmares, much less on the eve of their Joining.

The dwarf took another giant gulp from his tankard, ale running down the red braids of his beard as he belched loudly into the cup. Grace and civility obviously weren't his forte, but even Mhairi had to admit he swung a nasty axe in battle.

The mage was winning tonight, although Mhairi was watching his hands closely. He moved them often, ducking them underneath the table. She wondered if he was using sleight to change cards in and out. But he too, was in a good mood after the morning's battle.

Warden Commander Tabris sat quietly, looking over her hand. The elf clearly wasn't a gambler. But she had grown up in an alienage. Mhairi knew the elves wouldn't have much to gamble with. The Warden Commander was also a devout Andrastian and the Chantry looked down upon gambling as a vice. Kallian ran her fingers over her left ear, tucking her red hair behind it as she tossed another coin into the pot.

"I'll see that," Anders said, tossing his own coin onto the table and laying his hand down. "Full house. Nines over threes." The Warden Commander placed down a two pair as the mage corralled the coins toward him.

"Deal me another," Oghren said, thunking his mug down onto the table. "I'm getting spanked over here. I've got to be due."

Mhairi tossed the cards out to each of the players as they chipped in antes. She raised an eyebrow, looking at the dwarf. "There's no such thing as 'being due,'" Mhairi said as she doled out the last cards.

Oghren laughed, covering his mouth with his first to stifle another belch. "Says the sweetheart who hasn't played a hand all night." His gaze was lurid. Mhairi was repulsed.

"The odds are always the same," Mhairi said. "Past occurrence don't affect future outcomes. The chance of flipping a coin twenty times and getting twenty heads is very small, true. But each individual flip is exactly the same. You're just as likely to get heads as you are tails every time."

Anders lifted the corner on his cards, flipping a coin into the center of the table for effect, watching as it wobbled and rolled onto the head. Oghren tossed his coin in as well. "So you don't believe in luck, then?" the dwarf asked.

"I believe in luck," Anders said before Mhairi could speak. "Bad luck mostly. I've got plenty of that. I managed to get out of the Tower eight times and got caught eight times. That's beyond bad luck. That's a curse, I think."

"You're lucky the Templars just kept bringing you back," Mhairi said, only realizing after she said it how awful that sounded. It was pretty clear the mage was a troublemaker at the Tower, so much so that the Warden Commander had opted to conscript him to keep him from Templar justice. But he was a recruit now, just like her. They'd be serving together for many years, so she didn't mean to sound so cold.

"But to answer your question, no, I don't believe in luck," Mhairi said as she folded yet another hand.

Kallian folded her hand too. The elf's eyes looked so sad as she continually looked back and forth between the three of them. They would see be going through the Joining. Mhairi knew the Joining was dangerous. She assumed the Warden Commander was thinking of their safety.

"I believe in the Maker's providence," Kallian said. "I think he's always here with us, in some small way, helping us."

Anders raised the pot another three coins. Oghren raised it another three on top of that. "Whatcha got there, pretty boy?" Anders looked at his cards again and then folded them, conceding the hand to the dwarf. Oghren guffawed as he scooped up the pot. "No stones, no stones."

"If luck is what it takes to get me through this Joining, I'll take whatever I can get," Anders said, his fingers fidgeting with the small golden earring in his right ear, a few small bends of electric cracking between his fingertips on his other hand. "What I _hear_ is that many recruits don't survive it." His eyes were staring down the Warden Commander.

Kallian shuffled the cards in her hands. She paused for a moment, then simply said. "That's true."

"Fantastic," Anders said sarcastically. "Just when I get out of the Tower for good, now it's go through some dark secret ritual and, oh, guess what, you might not even live through it." He looked back at Mhairi. " _That's_ the very definition of bad luck."

Mhairi ignored the mage. "Commander, if you don't mind my asking, how many passed your Joining?"

Kallian's mouth drooped at the memory. "Only one," she said, referencing herself. "There were three of us. Daveth didn't survive. Ser Jory…" she stopped, before wrapping up with, "Ser Jory didn't survive either."

"One-for-three," Anders said. Then he lifted his finger and pointed around the table, counting. "One human, one dwarf, one mage. Oh joy."

Mhairi ignored that too. "But the Joining isn't like flipping a coin," she said. "It's not set odds. There is no probability. All outcomes are completely independent. The Joining isn't just a coin flip, it's a test of your physical and mental ability. That's how Teryn Loghain survived it."

Mhairi was at Ostagar. She was standing in the lines, pelted by icy rain, waiting for the signal atop the Tower of Ishal. She stood in a line thick with knights and men-at-arms waiting for the signal, waiting to charge and flank the darkspawn host. The King had taken on the more dangerous assignment, baiting the darkspawn into the melee. But Teryn Loghain would be able to spring the trap, quickly assess the battlefield, send troops to the right places and lead them to victory just like he had done at River Dane.

Then as the flames jumped from the top of the tower and the sounds of battle thick and brutal were filling the air, the Teryn had given the order to withdraw before even the first knight bloodied her blade. King Cailan died. The Grey Wardens died. Precious few survivors came wandering out of the Wilds in the days after.

Mhairi couldn't forgive the Teryn. He hadn't even tried to fight. He just walked away, leaving Ferelden to die. She would have gladly given her life to fight the Blight, to defend her homeland. It was why she sat at the table now, waiting her Joining. Warden Commander Tabris and King Alistair, together, had rallied the nation and stopped the Blight before it could ravage more of the nation than it already head. They were both true heroes, just like in the tales.

But Kallian had spared Teryn Loghain. She had Joined him. And as they battled the Archdemon atop Fort Drakon, it was the Teryn who took the killing blow, sacrificing himself to end the Blight and save Ferelden. You couldn't go into an inn or tavern in Ferelden lately without hearing a new song or story about Teryn Loghain and his last, heroic feat. The people rallied around their Grey Warden king and his wife, the golden daughter of the nation's greatest hero since Calenhad.

Mhairi knew her life of service to the Wardens would never match that. They would sing no songs about her. After she died, she doubted anyone would remember her at all. But she would go the Maker someday knowing that she made a sacrifice so that countless others did not have to. Becoming a Warden was an honor, a calling, a privilege. The highest privilege.

She wondered if Oghren and Anders understood that like she did.

"It's true," Kallian said. "A Warden has to be strong of both body and mind. If you doubt, if you are uncertain or afraid, if there is any weakness in your heart, the Joining will claim you."

The elf smiled as she slid two coins across the table, ready to play her next hand. "But I'm confident that each you can make it," Kallian said. "I wouldn't do you the disservice of putting you in that kind of danger if I didn't believe you could survive. The Maker will protect each of you, I'm sure."

The Warden Commander smiled and Mhairi melted a little. Kallian Tabris was the epitome of what it was to be a good leader. Strong, brave and tenacious, while still having a soft heart capable of love and mercy. Mhairi could only hope to aspire to be so peerless.

Mhairi lifted her cards and glanced at them and tried to stifle a smile as she raised the pot.

* * *

"He lives, Commander, and will awaken in time," Varel said as he checked the pulse and breathing of Anders on the floor.

The mage had collapsed after taking the Joining cup. Oghren had blanched and his eyes rolled into his head, but other than swaying on his feet, he hadn't fallen or lost consciousness. He was a hardy alcoholic, however, Mhairi knew.

Varel stood, refilling the Joining chalice with a small shot of the black, stinking darkspawn blood. The ritual liquid glowed slightly from the lyrium that had been used to activate it. It almost looked as if black shadows danced through the small blob of darkspawn blood.

Both the recruits had survived. Mhairi remembered the Warden Commander's words from last night. She was the only one of three to survive her own Joining. Recruits often died during the Joining. What were the chances that they would go three-for-three?

No, that wasn't the kind of thought she needed to have now. The Joining was a test. It was not a game. There were no set odds. There was no such thing as being due. A streak could start or break at any time. She was strong and she was sure. Becoming a soldier had been her calling. Becoming a knight, she once thought, was the greatest honor she could achieve. And now she stood her, ready to take on the highest calling a soldier could answer. There was nothing above being a Warden.

She had trained with sword and shield and armor since she was a teenager. She broke an engagement to a merchant's son to enlist in the army. She pushed herself day in and day out to keep step and be better than men who were taller and stronger than her. But she was smarter, more confident, more driven to succeed. What she lacked in size and strength, she made up for with moxy. She was recruited by the Wardens. She was here. About to imbibe darkspawn blood and be forever changed.

"From this moment forth, Mhairi. You are a Grey Warden," Varel said as he handed her the cup.

There was no streak. There were no odds. Oghren and Anders had lived. She looked forward to joining them.

There was no luck. There was only her ability. Just because they had both lived didn't mean she was doomed to die.

"I have awaited this moment," she said to steel her resolve.

Mhairi lifted the chalice to her lips

Her fingers trembled, her heart racing, as she drank the vile, black, ritual liquid.


End file.
